最容易被人工智能取代的10种职业亚洲必赢官网app(:

亚洲必赢官网app( 17

最容易被人工智能取代的10种职业亚洲必赢官网app(:

当今这个时代,就业市场是战场。而人工智能和机器人的发展,更是在职场上丢下一枚重磅炸弹。很多传统上看似安全的工作,在新技术冲击下,也不再是铁饭碗。下面来看看,未来哪10种职业最容易被机器代替。

当今这个时代,就业市场是战场。

BY MICHAEL E. PORTER AND JAMES E. HEPPELMANN

亚洲必赢官网app( 1

翻译

而人工智能和机器人的发展,更是在职场上丢下一枚重磅炸弹。

There is a fundamental disconnect between the wealth of digital data
available to us and the physical world in which we apply it. While
reality is threedimensional, the rich data we now have to inform our
decisions and actions remains trapped on two-dimensional pages and
screens. This gulf between the real and digital worlds limits our
ability to take advantage of the torrent of information and insights
produced by billions of smart, connected products (SCPs) worldwide.

‘The changes you make now are critical to preparing for the next era’

Image recognition software and voice recognition software are bringing
some major advances to language translation.

很多传统上看似安全的工作,在新技术冲击下,也不再是铁饭碗(iron bowl)。

Augmented reality, a set of technologies that superimposes digital data
and images on the physical world, promises to close this gap and release
untapped and uniquely human capabilities. Though still in its infancy,
AR is poised to enter the mainstream; according to one estimate,
spending on AR technology will hit $60 billion in 2020. AR will affect
companies in every industry and many other types of organizations, from
universities to social enterprises. In the coming months and years, it
will transform how we learn, make decisions, and interact with the
physical world. It will also change how enterprises serve customers,
train employees, design and create products, and manage their value
chains, and, ultimately,how they compete.

The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) is the great story of our time.
Decades in the making, AI-infused machines will soon change our lives
and work in ways that are easy to imagine but hard to predict.
Consider:

图像识别软件和语音识别软件为语言翻译带来了一些重要的进展。

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In this article we describe what AR is, its evolving technology and
applications, and why it is so important. Its significance will grow
exponentially as SCPs proliferate, because it amplifies their power to
create value and reshape competition. AR will become the new interface
between humans and machines, bridging the digital and physical worlds.
While challenges in deploying it remain, pioneering organizations, such
as Amazon, Facebook, General Electric, Mayo Clinic, and the U.S. Navy,
are already implementing AR and seeing a major impact on quality and
productivity. Here we provide a road map for how companies should deploy
AR and explain the critical choices they will face in integrating it
into strategy and operations.

Stock trading: In 2015, six of the top eight hedge funds in the US
earned around $8 billion based largely — or exclusively — on AI
algorithms. “The machine” has already won in stock picking.

Applications like Google’s Word Lens can translate words from signs and
documents in real time and there are a plethora of translation apps that
allow you to type in a word or phrase and will translate it for you.

下面来看看,未来哪10种职业最容易被机器代替,

WHAT IS AUGMENTED REALITY?

Healthcare: AI is quickly surpassing the capabilities of human
radiologists. At Houston Methodist Hospital, AI software interprets
results of breast x-rays 30 times faster than doctors do and with 99%
accuracy.

最容易被人工智能取代的10种职业亚洲必赢官网app(:。像谷歌的Word
Lens这样的应用程序可以实时地从标志和文档中翻译单词,还有大量的翻译应用程序可以根据输入的一个单词或短语提供翻译服务。

今年找工作尽量避开这些大坑吧。 

Isolated applications of AR have been around for decades, but only
recently have the technologies required to unleash its potential become
available. At the core, AR transforms volumes of data and analytics into
images or animations that are overlaid on the real world. Today most AR
applications are delivered through mobile devices, but increasingly
delivery will shift to hands-free wearables such as head-mounted
displays or smart glasses. Though many people are familiar with simple
AR entertainment applications, such as Snapchat filters and the game
Pokémon Go, AR is being applied in far more consequential ways in both
consumer and business-to-business settings. For example, AR “heads-up”
displays that put navigation, collision warning, and other information
directly in drivers’ line of sight are now available in dozens of car
models. Wearable AR devices for factory workers that superimpose
productionassembly or service instructions are being piloted at
thousands of companies. AR is supplementing or replacing traditional
manuals and training methods at an ever-faster pace.

•Law: AI-enhanced computer systems are conducting discovery and due
diligence far better, faster and cheaper than the most talented
paralegals. Soon, relying only on humans for discovery might become
grounds for malpractice.

Some will even speak the phrase for you. Granted, there are still
cultural cues this technology misses, but raw word-to-word translation
will be fully automated soon.

01

More broadly, AR enables a new information-delivery paradigm, which we
believe will have a profound impact on how data is structured, managed,
and delivered on the internet. Though the web transformed how
information is collected, transmitted, and accessed, its model for data
storage and delivery—pages on flat screens—has major limits: It requires
people to mentally translate 2-D information for use in a 3-D world.
That isn’t always easy, as anyone who has used a manual to fix an office
copier knows. By superimposing digital information directly on real
objects or environments, AR allows people to process the physical and
digital simultaneously, eliminating the need to mentally bridge the two.
That improves our ability to rapidly and accurately absorb information,
make decisions, and execute required tasks quickly and efficiently.

For many people, the encroachment of AI into the human sphere – and the
rise of the new machine fueled by AI, algorithms, bots and big data –
raises a discomfiting question: if machines can do everything, then how
are humans going to make a living?

有的程序还可以读出单词和短语。当然,这种技术仍然存在一些文化上的理解困难,但是原始的逐字翻译将很快被自动化完全取代。

Translator

AR displays in cars are a vivid illustration of this. Until recently,
drivers using GPS navigation had to look at a map on a flat screen and
then figure out how to apply it in the real world. To take the correct
exit from a busy rotary, for example, the driver needed to shift his or
her gaze between the road and the screen and mentally connect the image
on the map to the proper turnoff. AR heads-up displays lay navigational
images directly over what the driver sees through the windshield. This
reduces the mental effort of applying the information, prevents
distraction, and minimizes driver error, freeing people to focus on the
road. (For more on this, see the sidebar “Enhancing Human Decision
Making.”)

This question has been going through my mind, and those of my
colleagues, for a while and this is why we’ve worked to define how
technology will shape the opportunities and threats we face, and to
foresee how man and machine will relate and coexist.

So, if you’re not translating high-dollar business negotiations or
matters of national security, then you may find that algorithms will be
good enough to handle most other translation duties.

翻译

AR is making advances in consumer markets, but its emerging impact on
human performance is even greater in industrial settings. Consider how
Newport News Shipbuilding, which designs and builds U.S. Navy aircraft
carriers, uses AR near the end of its manufacturing process to inspect a
ship, marking for removal steel construction structures that are not
part of the finished carrier. Historically, engineers had to constantly
compare the actual ship with complex 2-D blueprints. But with AR, they
can now see the final design superimposed on the ship, which reduces
inspection time by 96%—from 36 hours to just 90 minutes. Overall, time
savings of 25% or more are typical for manufacturing tasks using AR.

Man and machine

The bottom line: it’s going to be all right. Will the new machines
displace many current workers? Yes, but, on a larger scale, new machines
will also create work that is better, more productive and more
satisfying than ever before. They will raise living standards and usher
in a period of widely distributed economic growth.

But there’s a catch. Businesses must embrace two truths: firstly,
machines will do more of the work humans perform today; and secondly,
it’s never been more important to embrace your human-ness.

In short, the changes you make now are critical to preparing for the
next era.

Based on our work with Global 2000 companies, we’ve developed a
structured approach for moving forward, which we call the AHEAD model.
The model is essentially a playbook that outlines five specific
approaches for winning with AI, each with its own set of approaches and
tactics.

因此,如果你所从事的并非高薪的商务谈判或国家安全问题翻译工作,那么你的工作就会被性能优良的工具取代。

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AR’S KEY CAPABILITIES

Automate

It’s a once-in-a-generation opportunity: organizations that deploy
intelligent process automation can completely change their cost
structures and significantly increase the velocity and quality of their
operations. It’s the only way to compete at the “Amazon cost” and the
“Google speed” required by the digital age.

To force yourself and your team to reimagine how work can be done, apply
the 25%-25% rule: set expected cost reductions at 25%, and an associated
productivity increase of 25%. It will quickly become clear that
traditional approaches are not good enough and that only AI-driven
digital automation will deliver expected results.

Insurance underwriter

翻译曾经也是很多语言毕业生的就业方向之一,但在人工智能浪潮中,

As we’ve previously explained (see “How Smart, Connected Products Are
Transforming Competition,” HBR, November 2014), the SCPs spreading

Halo

Every industrial revolution was stimulated by a raw material: coal,
steel, oil, electricity. Today, it’s data. Businesses need to understand
how to take this commodity – available to each and every one of us – and
turn it into a competitive advantage.

The race is on to instrument products and people and leverage the data
they generate (what we call Code Halos), and then use the resulting
insights to create new customer experiences and business models. By
doing so, you can become a “know-it-all” business – one that uses
sensors and instrumentation to know everything about everything.

General Electric and Nike are great examples of companies changing the
rules of the game in their industries by instrumenting their products,
surrounding them with halos of data and creating new value propositions
and customer intimacy.

保险承包人

Google引入了神经机器翻译系统,科大讯飞等公司研制出的翻译软件已经能接近80%的准确度。

through our homes, workplaces, and factories allow users to monitor
product operations and conditions in real time, control and customize
product operations remotely, and optimize product performance using
real-time data. And in some cases, intelligence and connectivity allow
SCPs to be fully autonomous.

Enhance

We believe the best way to understand our future is to see smart
machines not as competitors for our jobs, but as companions that
increase our job productivity and satisfaction. Think of how a GPS
currently enhances your driving. In the coming years, entire vocations,
from sales to nursing and teaching, will be enhanced by the new
machines. The vast majority of us will choose to work with the enhanced
human – the one equipped with a sophisticated system of intelligence at
their side.

When the computer does what it does well, it allows us to focus more on
what we do well. In an enhanced world of more pervasive technology,
uniquely human activities, like empathy, building relationships and
making sense of complex situations, will become even more important.

Whenever you apply for insurance through a broker or agent, your
application has to be vetted to determine if the risk is worth accepting
for the insurance company. The work is performed by underwriters. They
review the application and decide whether or not they’ll provide
insurance, and how much they’ll offer.

亚洲必赢官网app( 4

AR powerfully magnifies the value created by those capabilities.
Specifically, it improves how users visualize and therefore access all
the new monitoring data, how they receive and follow instructions and
guidance on product operations, and even how they interact with and
control the products themselves.

当你通过经纪人或代理人申请保险时,你的申请必须经过审查,以确定风险是否值得保险公司接受。这项工作由承保人执行。他们审查你的申请并决定是否提供保险,以及将提供的保险数额。

可以想见,未来低端的翻译将彻底被取代,即便是高端的同传、交传,也将受到极大冲击,想单纯靠一门语言吃饱饭是越来越难了。

X-ray vision, revealing internal features that would be difficult to see
otherwise. At the medical device company AccuVein, for instance, AR
technology converts the heat signature of a patient’s veins into an
image that is superimposed on the skin, making the veins easier for
clinicians to locate. This dramatically improves the success rate of
blood draws and other vascular procedures. AR more than triples the
likelihood of a successful needle stick on the first try and reduces the
need for “escalations” (calling for assistance, for example) by 45%.

The role of insurance underwriter is at risk for automation because
applications can be standardized and most organizations have set rules
by which they determine eligibility.

Image recognition software and voice recognition software are bringing
some major advances to language translation. 

图像识别软件和语音识别软件为语言翻译带来了一些重要的进展。

Applications like Google’s Word Lens can translate words from signs
and documents in real time and there are a plethora of translation
apps that allow you to type in a word or phrase and will translate it
for you. 

像谷歌的Word
Lens这样的应用程序可以实时地从标志和文档中翻译单词,还有大量的翻译应用程序可以根据输入的一个单词或短语提供翻译服务。

Some will even speak the phrase for you. Granted, there are still
cultural cues this technology misses, but raw word-to-word translation
will be fully automated soon.

有的程序还可以读出单词和短语。当然,这种技术仍然存在一些文化上的理解困难,但是原始的逐字翻译将很快被自动化完全取代。

So, if you’re not translating high-dollar business negotiations or
matters of national security, then you may find that algorithms will
be good enough to handle most other translation duties.

因此,如果你所从事的并非高薪的商务谈判或国家安全问题翻译工作,那么你的工作就会被性能优良的工具取代。

Bosch Rexroth, a global provider of power units and controls used in
manufacturing, uses an AR-enhanced visualization to demonstrate the
design and capabilities of its smart, connected CytroPac hydraulic power
unit. The AR application allows customers to see 3-D representations of
the unit’s internal pump and cooling options in multiple configurations
and how subsystems fit together.

保险承保人面临着被自动化取代的风险,因为应用程序可以标准化,而且大多数公司都制定了确定资格的规则。

亚洲必赢官网app( ,02

Instruct and guide. AR is already redefining instruction, training, and
coaching. These critical functions, which improve workforce
productivity, are inherently costly and labor-intensive and often
deliver uneven results. Written instructions for assembly tasks, for
instance, are frequently hard and timeconsuming to follow. Standard
instructional videos aren’t interactive and can’t adapt to individual
learning needs. In-person training is expensive and requires students
and teachers to meet at a common site, sometimes repeatedly. And if the
equipment about which students are being taught isn’t available, they
may need extra training to transfer what they’ve learned to a real-world
context.

Machine learning can help computer systems learn these rules and apply
them to the applications they receive.

Insurance underwriter 

AR addresses those issues by providing real-time, on-site, step-by-step
visual guidance on tasks such as product assembly, machine operation,
and warehouse picking. Complicated 2-D schematic representations of a
procedure in a manual, for example, become interactive 3-D holograms
that walk the user through the necessary processes. Little is left to
the imagination or interpretation.

机器学习可以帮助计算机系统学习这些规则,并将它们应用到申请审查中。

保险承包人

At Boeing, AR training has had a dramatic impact on the productivity and
quality of complex aircraft manufacturing procedures. In one Boeing
study, AR was used to guide trainees through the 50 steps required to
assemble an aircraft wing section involving 30 parts. With the help of
AR, trainees completed the work in 35% less time than trainees using
traditional 2-D drawings and documentation. And the number of trainees
with little or no experience who could perform the operation correctly
the first time increased by 90%.

Sales representativ

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销售代表

保险看似是个黄金工作,很多人被这个行业还不错的薪资吸引住了。

AR-enabled devices can also transmit what an on-site user is seeing to a
remote expert, who can respond with immediate guidance. In effect, this
instantly puts the expert at the user’s side, regardless of location.
This capability not only improves worker performance but substantially
reduces costs—as Lee Company, which sells and services building systems,
has discovered. It uses AR to help its field technicians with
installations and repairs. A remote expert can see what the tech is
viewing through his or her AR device, guide the tech through the work to
be done, and even annotate the tech’s view with instructions. Getting
expert support from a central location in real time has increased Lee’s
tech utilization dramatically. And, by reducing the number of repeat
visits, Lee saves more than $500 per technician per month in labor and
travel costs. The company calculates a return of $20 on every dollar
invested in AR.

But, e-commerce is changing how we make purchasing decisions, especially
those where there isn’t much differentiation among the major
competitors.

但其实,在人工智能时代,保险业从业者到底还能不能保住金饭碗,可能要打个大大的问号了。

Interact. Traditionally, people have used physical controls such as
buttons, knobs, and, more recently, built-in touchscreens to interact
with products. With the rise of SCPs, apps on mobile devices have
increasingly replaced physical controls and allowed users to operate
products remotely.

但是,电子商务正在改变我们的购买决定,特别是那些在主要竞争对手之间没有太多差别的领域。

Whenever you apply for insurance through a broker or agent, your
application has to be vetted to determine if the risk is worth
accepting for the insurance company. The work is performed by
underwriters. They review the application and decide whether or not
they’ll provide insurance, and how much they’ll offer.

当你通过经纪人或代理人申请保险时,你的申请必须经过审查,以确定风险是否值得保险公司接受。这项工作由承保人执行。他们审查你的申请并决定是否提供保险,以及将提供的保险数额。

The role of insurance underwriter is at risk for automation because
applications can be standardized and most organizations have set rules
by which they determine eligibility. 

保险承保人面临着被自动化取代的风险,因为应用程序可以标准化,而且大多数公司都制定了确定资格的规则。

Machine learning can help computer systems learn these rules and apply
them to the applications they receive.

机器学习可以帮助计算机系统学习这些规则,并将它们应用到申请审查中。

AR takes the user interface to a whole new level. A virtual control
panel can be superimposed directly on the product and operated using an
AR  eadset, hand gestures, and voice commands. Soon, users wearing smart
glasses will be able to simply gaze at or point to a product to activate
a virtual user interface and operate it. A worker wearing smart glasses,
for instance, will be able to walk a line of factory machines, see their
performance parameters, and adjust each machine without physically
touching it.

If you’re selling a high-differentiation product and/or a high-price,
low-volume product you have some job security, but if you’re selling a
high-volume, low-differentiation product, you better start polishing
your resume, said Doug Camplejohn, CEO of Fliptop. “These kind of
product sales are all moving online.”

03

The interact capability of AR is still nascent in commercial products
but is revolutionary. Reality Editor, an AR app developed by the Fluid
Interfaces group at MIT’s Media Lab, provides a glimpse of how it is
rapidly evolving. Reality Editor makes it easy to add an interactive AR
experience to any SCP. With it, people can point a smartphone or a
tablet at an SCP (or, eventually, look at it through smart glasses),
“see” its digital interfaces and the capabilities that can be
programmed, and link those capabilities to hand gestures or voice
commands or even to another smart product. For example, Reality Editor
can allow a user to see a smart light bulb’s controls for color and
intensity and set up voice commands like “bright” and “mood” to activate
them. Or different settings of the bulb can be linked to buttons on a
smart light switch the user can place anywhere that’s convenient.

Fliptop的首席执行官Doug
Camplejohn说:“如果你正在销售特殊产品或高价格、低产量的产品,人工智能对你的威胁并不大,但如果你销售的是一种高产出的普通产品,你最好开始润色你的简历。”“这些产品的销售都可以在网上进行。

Sales representativ

The technologies underpinning these capabilities are still emerging, but
the accuracy of voice commands in noisy environments is improving, and
advances in gesture and gaze tracking have been rapid. GE has already
tested the use of voice commands in AR experiences that enable factory
workers to perform complex wiring processes in wind turbines—and has
achieved a 34% increase in productivity.

Call center worker

销售代表

COMBINING AR AND VIRTUAL REALITY

电话中心从业者

亚洲必赢官网app( 7

AR’s well-known cousin, virtual reality, is a complementary but distinct
technology. While AR superimposes digital information on the physical
world, VR replaces physical reality with a computer-generated
environment. Though VR is used mostly for entertainment applications, it
can also replicate physical settings for training purposes. It is
especially useful when the settings involved are hazardous or remote.
Or, if the machinery required for raining is not available, VR can
immerse technicians in a virtual environment using holograms of the
equipment. So when needed, VR adds a fourth apability—simulate—to AR’s
core capabilities of visualize, instruct, and interact.

At this point, most people are familiar with automated customer service
lines and telemarketing.

直觉告诉我们,做销售需要人与人的交流。

亚洲必赢官网app( 8

在这一点上,大多数人都熟悉自动化的客户服务电话和电话营销。

But, e-commerce is changing how we make purchasing decisions,
especially those where there isn’t much differentiation among the
major competitors.

但是,电子商务正在改变我们的购买决定,特别是那些在主要竞争对手之间没有太多差别的领域。

“If you’re selling a high-differentiation product and/or a high-price,
low-volume product you have some job security, but if you’re selling a
high-volume, low-differentiation product, you better start polishing
your resume,” said Doug Camplejohn, CEO of Fliptop. “These kind of
product sales are all moving online.”

Fliptop的首席执行官Doug
Camplejohn说:“如果你正在销售特殊产品或高价格、低产量的产品,人工智能对你的威胁并不大,但如果你销售的是一种高产出的普通产品,你最好开始润色你的简历。”“这些产品的销售都可以在网上进行。

亚洲必赢官网app( 9

Using natural-language processing, automated call lines are able to
better understand what customers are saying and direct them to the
proper resource.

04

AR will be far more widely applied in business than VR will. But in some
circumstances, combining AR and VR will allow users to transcend
distance (by simulating faraway locations), transcend time (by
reproducing historical contexts or simulating possible future
situations), and transcend scale (by allowing users to engage with
environments that are either too small or too big to experience
directly). What’s more, bringing people together in shared virtual
environments can enhance comprehension, teamwork, communication, and
decision making.

使用自然语言处理、自动接听电话线能够更好地理解客户所说的内容,并正确引导客户。

Call center worker 

AR will be far more widely applied in business than VR will. But in some
circumstances, combining AR and VR will allow users to transcend
distance (by simulating faraway locations), transcend time (by
reproducing historical contexts or simulating possible future
situations), and transcend scale (by allowing users to engage with
environments that are either too small or too big to experience
directly). What’s more, bringing people together in shared virtual
environments can enhance comprehension, teamwork, communication, and
decision making.

There’s usually still an option to be routed to a ’real person’, but
even that could be eliminated in the next few years.

电话中心从业者

Ford, for example, is using VR to create a virtual workshop where
geographically dispersed engineers can collaborate in real time on
holograms of vehicle prototypes. Participants can walk around and go
inside these life-size 3-D holograms, working out how to refine design
details such as the position of the steering wheel, the angle of the
dashboard, and the location of instruments and controls without having
to build an expensive physical prototype and get everyone to one
location to examine it.

通常还有一个选项可以选择 “真人”接听,但这个岗位在未来几年内也会被淘汰。

亚洲必赢官网app( 10

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security is going a step further by
combining AR instructions with VR simulations to train personnel in
responding to emergency situations such as explosions. This reduces
costs and—in cases in which training in real environments would be
dangerous—risk. The energy multinational BP overlays AR training
procedures on VR simulations that replicate specific drilling
conditions, like temperature, pressure, topography, and ocean currents,
and that instruct teams on operations and help them practice coordinated
emergency responses to disasters without high costs or risk.

Additionally, automation could lead to fewer calls to helplines in
general, at least on the customer service side of things. Smart systems,
remotely monitored by sensors, could help with product maintenance and
ward off potential problems.

曾几何时,我们认为与人打交道的工作,至少还需要人还做吧。

HOW AR CREATES VALUE

此外,自动化可能会导致对求助热线的电话减少,至少在客户服务方面是如此。智能系统由传感器远程监控,可以帮助进行产品维护和防止潜在问题的出现。

比如客服中心,总要有人接听电话吧。

AR creates business value in two broad ways: first, by becoming part of
products themselves, and second, by improving performance across the
value chain—in product development, manufacturing, marketing, service,
and numerous other areas.

Sorter

但现在,你还真分不清接听你电话的到底是人还是机器。

AR as a product feature. The capabilities of AR play into the growing
design focus on creating better user interfaces and ergonomics. The way
products convey important operational and safety information to users
has increasingly become a point of differentiation (consider how mobile
apps have supplemented or replaced embedded screens in products like
Sonos audio players). AR is poised to rapidly improve such interfaces.

分类人员

At this point, most people are familiar with automated customer
service lines and telemarketing. 

在这一点上,大多数人都熟悉自动化的客户服务电话和电话营销。

Using natural-language processing, automated call lines are able to
better understand what customers are saying and direct them to the
proper resource. 

使用自然语言处理、自动接听电话线能够更好地理解客户所说的内容,并正确引导客户。

There’s usually still an option to be routed to a ‘real person’, but
even that could be eliminated in the next few years.

通常还有一个选项可以选择
“真人”接听,但这个岗位在未来几年内也会被淘汰。

Additionally, automation could lead to fewer calls to helplines in
general, at least on the customer service side of things. Smart
systems, remotely monitored by sensors, could help with product
maintenance and ward off potential problems.

此外,自动化可能会导致对求助热线的电话减少,至少在客户服务方面是如此。智能系统由传感器远程监控,可以帮助进行产品维护和防止潜在问题的出现。

Dedicated AR heads-up displays, which have only recently been
incorporated into automobiles, have been a key feature in elite military
products, such as fighter jets, for years and have been adopted in
commercial aircraft as well. These types of displays are too expensive
and bulky to ntegrate into most products, but wearables such as smart
glasses are a breakthrough interface with wide-ranging implications for
all manufacturers. With mart glasses, a user can see an AR display on
any product enabled to communicate with them.

Sorting takes a trained eye and sorters typically work in a factory,
pulling damaged or imperfect products from a batch as it moves along a
conveyor belt.

05

If you view a kitchen oven through smart glasses, for example, you might
see a virtual display that shows the baking temperature, the minutes
remaining on the timer, and the recipe you are following. If you
approach your car, an AR display might show you that it is locked, that
the fuel tank is nearly full, and that the left-rear tire’s pressure is
low.

分类需要经过训练的眼睛和分类人员,通常是在工厂里从传送带中取出受损或不完美的产品。

 Sorter

Because an AR user interface is purely software based and delivered via
the cloud, it can be personalized and can continually evolve. The
incremental cost of providing such an interface is low, and
manufacturers also stand to save considerable amounts when traditional
buttons, switches, and dials are removed. Every product manufacturer
needs to carefully consider the disruptive impact that this
nextgeneration interface may have on its offering and competitive
positioning.

Automated inspection technology is growing to match the human output for
this job.

分类人员

AR can already be seen across the value chain, but they are more
advanced in some areas than in others. In general, visualize and
instruct/guide applications are now having the greatest impact on
companies’ operations, while the interact capability is still emerging
and in pilot testing.

自动化检测技术不断发展,与人类的产出相匹配。

亚洲必赢官网app( 11

Product development. Though engineers have been using computeraided
design (CAD) capabilities to create 3-D models for 30 years, they have
been limited to interacting with those models through 2-D windows on
their computer screens, which makes it harder for them to fully
conceptualize designs. AR allows 3-D models to be superimposed on the
physical world as holograms, enhancing engineers’ ability to evaluate
and improve designs. For example, a life-size 3-D hologram of a
construction machine can be positioned on the ground, and engineers can
walk around it, peer under and over it, and even go inside it to fully
appreciate the sight lines and ergonomics of its design at full scale in
its intended setting.

Right now it’s common for people to be manually sorting and inspecting
every single item — a seat belt bolt, for example.

物流行业在人工智能冲击下,整体格局也在大变。

AR also lets engineers superimpose CAD models on physical prototypes to
compare how well they match. Volkswagen is using this technique—which
makes any difference between the latest design and the prototype
visually obvious—to check alignment in digital design reviews. This
improves the accuracy of the quality assurance process, in which
engineers previously had to painstakingly compare 2-D drawings with
prototypes, and makes it five to 10 times faster.

现在,人们通常会对每一件物品进行手工分类和检查——例如,安全带螺栓。

而行业中的从业人员,可能是最早感受到寒潮的一批人。

We expect that in the near future AR enabled devices such as phones and
smart glasses, with their embedded cameras, accelerometers, GPS, and
other sensors, will increasingly inform product design by exposing when,
where, and how users actually interact with the product—how often a
certain repair sequence is initiated, for example. In this way the AR
interface will become an important source of data.

Vision inspection cameras used to cost $30,000, now they cost $1000, and
vision inspection systems are fast, efficient and highly accurate.

Sorting takes a trained eye and sorters typically work in a factory,
pulling damaged or imperfect products from a batch as it moves along a
conveyor belt. 

分类需要经过训练的眼睛和分类人员,通常是在工厂里从传送带中取出受损或不完美的产品。

Automated inspection technology is growing to match the human output
for this job.

自动化检测技术不断发展,与人类的产出相匹配。

Right now it’s common for people to be manually sorting and inspecting
every single item — a seat belt bolt, for example. 

现在,人们通常会对每一件物品进行手工分类和检查——例如,安全带螺栓。

Vision inspection cameras used to cost $30,000, now they cost $1000,
and vision inspection systems are fast, efficient and highly accurate.

视觉检查相机曾经的花费高达3万美元,现在只需1000美元,视觉检查系统快速、高效、高度准确。

Manufacturing. In manufacturing, processes are often complex, requiring
hundreds or even thousands of steps, and mistakes are costly. As we’ve
learned, AR can deliver just the right information the moment it’s
needed to factory workers on assembly lines, reducing errors, enhancing
efficiency, and improving productivity.

视觉检查相机曾经的花费高达3万美元,现在只需1000美元,视觉检查系统快速、高效、高度准确。

06

In factories, AR can also capture information from automation and
control systems, secondary sensors, and asset management systems and
make visible important monitoring and diagnostic data about each machine
or process. Seeing information such as efficiency and defect rates in
context helps maintenance technicians understand problems and prompts
factory workers to do proactive maintenance that may prevent costly
downtime. Iconics, which specializes in automation software for
factories and buildings, has begun to integrate AR into its products’
user interfaces. By attaching relevant information to the physical
location where it will be best observed and understood, the AR
interfaces enable more-efficient monitoring of machines and processes.

Data entry

Data entry

Logistics. Warehouse operations are estimated to account for about 20%
of all logistics costs, while picking items from shelves represents up
to 5% of warehouse costs. In most warehouses, workers still perform this
task by consulting a paper list of things to collect and then searching
for them. This method is slow and error-prone.

数据输入

数据输入

The logistics giant DHL and a growing number of other companies are
using AR to enhance the efficiency and accuracy of the picking process.
AR instructions direct workers to the location of each product to be
pulled and then suggest the best route to the next product. At DHL this
approach has led to fewer errors, more-engaged workers, and productivity
gains of 25%. The company is now rolling out AR-guided picking globally
and testing how AR can enhance other types of warehouse operations, such
as optimizing the position of goods and machines in layouts. Intel is
also using AR in warehouses and has achieved a 29% reduction in picking
time, with error rates falling to near zero. And the AR application is
allowing new Intel workers to immediately achieve picking speeds 15%
faster than those of workers who’ve had only traditional training.

For example, data from a driver’s time on the road and time on the site
could be captured by an on-board sensor, combined with GPS data, and
automatically fed into the backend system.

亚洲必赢官网app( 12

Marketing and sales. AR is redefining the concept of showrooms and
product demonstrations and transforming the customer experience. When
customers can see virtually how products will look or function in a real
setting before buying them, they have more-accurate expectations, more
confidence about their purchase decisions, and greater product
satisfaction. Down the road, AR may even reduce the need for
brick-and-mortar stores and showrooms altogether. When products can be
configured with different features and options—which can make them
difficult and costly to stock—AR is a particularly valuable marketing
tool.

例如,司机在路上和地点上的数据可以被机载传感器捕获,并与GPS数据结合,并自动送入后端系统。

在很多行业里,数据都走在重要的资产,准确的数据输入是必不可少的。

The construction products company AZEK, for instance, uses AR to show
contractors and consumers how its decking and paver products look in
various colors and arrangements. Customers can also see the simulations
in context: If you look at a house through a phone or a tablet, the AR
app can add a deck onto it. The experience reduces any uncertainty
customers might feel about their choices and shortens the sales cycle.

That data could then be automatically compared against daily goals and
plans, and processed on behalf of that driver. The data entry is more
efficient and happens faster as a result.

但科技时代,可能就再也不需要人来做数据输入和简单处理的事情了,

In e-commerce, AR applications are allowing online shoppers to download
holograms of products. Wayfair and IKEA both offer libraries with
thousands of 3-D product images and apps that integrate them into a view
of an actual room, enabling customers to see how furniture and decor
will look in their homes. IKEA also uses its app to collect important
data about product preferences in different regions.

这些数据可以自动与日常目标和计划进行比较,并代表该驱动程序进行处理。这样一来,数据输入的效率更高,取得结果的速度也更快。

自动数据输入不仅更快,还能更强,更准确。

After-sales service. This is a function where AR shows huge potential to
unlock the value-creating capabilities of SCPs. AR assists technicians
serving customers in the field in much the same way it helps workers in
factories: by showing predictive analytics data generated by the
product, visually guiding them through repairs in real time, and
connecting them with remote experts who can help optimize procedures.
For example, an AR dashboard might reveal to a field technician that a
specific machine part will most likely fail within a month, allowing the
tech to preempt a problem for the customer by replacing it now. At KPN,
a European telecommunications service provider, field engineers
conducting remote or on-site repairs use AR smart glasses to see a
product’s service-history data, diagnostics, and location-based
information dashboards. These AR displays help them make better
decisions about demand through AR. AR allows instruction to be tailored
to a particular worker’s experience or to reflect the prevalence of
particular errors. For example, if someone repeatedly makes the same
kind of mistake, he can be required to use AR support until his work
quality improves. At some companies, AR has reduced the training time
for new employees in certain kinds of work to nearly zero and lowered
the skill requirements for new hires. This is especially advantageous
for the package delivery company DHL, which faces surges in demand
during peak seasons and is heavily dependent on the effective hiring and
training of temporary workers. By providing real-time training and
hands-on guidance on navigating warehouses and properly packing and
sorting materials, AR has reduced how to resolve issues, producing an
11% reduction in overall costs for service teams, a 17% decrease in
work-error rates, and higher repair quality.

While lots of data — especially historical data — still needs to be
digitized, and there will be work available to scan much of this data in
the short term, the long-term need for data entry will be reduced.

For example, data from a driver’s time on the road and time on the
site could be captured by an on-board sensor, combined with GPS data,
and automatically fed into the backend system. 

例如,司机在路上和地点上的数据可以被机载传感器捕获,并与GPS数据结合,并自动送入后端系统。

That data could then be automatically compared against daily goals and
plans, and processed on behalf of that driver. The data entry is more
efficient and happens faster as a result.

这些数据可以自动与日常目标和计划进行比较,并代表该驱动程序进行处理。这样一来,数据输入的效率更高,取得结果的速度也更快。

While lots of data — especially historical data — still needs to be
digitized, and there will be work available to scan much of this data
in the short term, the long-term need for data entry will be reduced.

但是还有许多数据——尤其是历史数据——仍然需要人工数字化,短期内还会有大量数据需要扫描,因此对人工数据输入工作人员的需求将会慢慢减少。

 Xerox used AR to connect field engineers with experts instead of
providing service manuals and telephone support. First-time fix rates
increased by 67%, and the engineers’ efficiency jumped by 20%.
Meanwhile, the average time it took to resolve problems dropped by two
hours, so staffing needs fell. Now Xerox is using AR to connect remote
technical experts directly with customers. This has increased by 76% the
rate at which technical problems are resolved by customers without any
on-site help, cutting travel costs for Xerox and minimizing downtime for
customers. Perhaps not surprisingly, Xerox has seen its customer
satisfaction rates rise to 95%.

但是还有许多数据——尤其是历史数据——仍然需要人工数字化,短期内还会有大量数据需要扫描,因此对人工数据输入工作人员的需求将会慢慢减少。

07

Human resources. Early AR adopters like DHL, the U.S. Navy, and Boeing
have already discovered the power of delivering step-by-step visual
worker training on DHL’s need for traditional instructors and increased
the onboarding speed for new employees.

Tax Preparer

Tax Preparer

AR AND STRATEGY

报税员

报税员

AR will have a widespread impact on how companies compete. As we’ve
explained in our previous HBR articles, SCPs are changing the structure
of almost all industries as well as the nature of competition within
them—often expanding industry boundaries in the process. SCPs give rise
to new strategic choices for manufacturers, ranging from what
functionality to pursue and how to manage data rights and security, to
whether to expand a company’s scope of products and compete in smart
systems. The increasing penetration of AR, along with its power as the
human interface with SCP technologies, raises some new strategic
questions. While the answers will reflect each company’s business and
unique circumstances, AR will become more and more integral to every
firm’s strategy.

But, aside from a few overly complicated tax code issues, most workers
will be likely be able to file their taxes without the assistance of
another human.

亚洲必赢官网app( 13

Here are the essential questions companies face:

但未来,除了一些过于复杂的税法问题之外,大多数人在没有其他人帮助的情况下,很有可能会自己提交税收。

许多人都雇佣了报税员,他们帮你弄清楚你欠了多少钱或者你会在缴税时得到什么。

  1. What is the range of AR opportunities in the industry, and in what
    sequence should they be pursued? Companies must weigh AR’s potential
    impact on customers, product capabilities, and the value chain.

  2. How will AR reinforce a company’s product differentiation? AR opens
    up multiple differentiation paths. It can create companion experiences
    that expand the capabilities of products, give customers more
    information, and increase product loyalty. AR interfaces that enhance
    products’ functionality or ease of use can be big differentiators, as
    can those that substantially improve product support, service, and
    uptime. And AR’s capacity to provide new kinds of feedback on how
    customers use products can help companies uncover further opportunities
    for product differentiation. The right differentiation path will depend
    on a company’s existing strategy; what competitors are doing; and the
    pace of technology advances, especially in hardware.

  3. Where will AR have the greatest impact on cost reduction? AR enables
    new efficiencies that every firm must explore.As we’ve noted, it can
    significantly lower the cost of training, service, assembly, design, and
    other parts of the value chain. It can also substantially cut
    manufacturing costs by reducing the need for physical interfaces. Each
    company will need to prioritize AR-driven cost-reduction efforts in a
    way that’s consistent with its strategic positioning. Firms with
    sophisticated products will need to capitalize on AR’s superior and
    low-cost interface, while many commodity producers will focus on
    operational efficiencies across the value chain. In consumer industries
    and retail, marketing-related visualize applications are the most likely
    starting point. In manufacturing, instruct applications are achieving
    the most immediate payoff by addressing inefficiencies in engineering,
    production, and service. And AR’s interact capability, though still
    emerging, will be important across all industries with products that
    have customization and complex control capabilities.

Tax forms are standardized and machines will be able to read the info
and ask you a few questions to process your paperwork. We’ve seen this
happening with software like TurboTax for years.

But, aside from a few overly complicated tax code issues, most workers
will be likely be able to file their taxes without the assistance of
another human. 

但未来,除了一些过于复杂的税法问题之外,大多数人在没有其他人帮助的情况下,很有可能会自己提交税收。

Tax forms are standardized and machines will be able to read the info
and ask you a few questions to process your paperwork. We’ve seen this
happening with software like TurboTax for years.

税务表格是标准化的,机器将能够阅读信息,并问你几个问题来处理你的文书工作。比如,近年来已经出现了像TurboTax这样的软件。

Of course, the tax code is complicated and where there are problems,
ambiguities, and irregularities, there will still be the need for
human beings with deep knowledge who can do far more than just fill
out the right forms.

当然,税法是复杂的,有问题、含糊不清和不规范的地方,仍然需要有深入知识的人,他们能做的远远不止填好正确的表格。

亚洲必赢官网app( 14

税务表格是标准化的,机器将能够阅读信息,并问你几个问题来处理你的文书工作。比如,近年来已经出现了像TurboTax这样的软件。

08

  1. Should the company make AR design and deployment a core strength, or
    will outsourcing or partnering be sufficient? Many firms are
    scrambling to access the digital talent needed for AR development, which
    is in short supply. One skill in great demand is user experience or user
    interface (UX/UI) design. It’s critical to present 3-D digital
    information in ways that make it easy to absorb and act on; companies
    want to avoid making a stunning but unhelpful AR experience that defeats
    its core purpose. Effective AR experiences also require the right
    content, so people who know how to create and manage it—another novel
    skill—are crucial too. Digital modeling capabilities and knowledge of
    how to apply them in AR applications are key as well. Over time we
    expect companies to create teams dedicated to AR, just as they set up
    such teams to build and run websites in the 1990s and 2000s. Dedicated
    teams will be needed to establish the infrastructure that will allow
    this new medium to flourish and to develop and maintain the AR content.
    Many firms have started to build AR skills in-house, but few have
    mastered them yet. Whether to hire and train AR employees or partner
    with specialty software and services companies is an open question for
    many. Some companies have no choice but to treat AR talent as a
    strategic asset and invest in acquiring and developing it, given AR’s
    potentially large impact on competition in their business. However, if
    AR is important but not essential to competitive advantage, firms can
    partner with specialty software and services companies to leverage
    outside talent and technology.

Of course, the tax code is complicated and where there are problems,
ambiguities, and irregularities, there will still be the need for human
beings with deep knowledge who can do far more than just fill out the
right forms.

Fast food workers

The challenges, time, and cost involved in building the full set of AR
technologies we have described are significant, and specialization
always emerges in each component. In the early stages of AR, the number
of technology and service suppliers has been limited, and companies have
built internal capabilities. However, best-ofbreed AR vendors with
turnkey solutions are starting to appear, and it will become
increasingly difficult for in-house efforts to keep up with them.

当然,税法是复杂的,有问题、含糊不清和不规范的地方,仍然需要有深入知识的人,他们能做的远远不止填好正确的表格。

快餐店服务人员

  1. How will AR change communications with stakeholders? AR complements
    existing print and 2-D digital communication approaches and in some
    cases can replace them altogether. Yet we see AR as much more than just
    another communication channel. It is a fundamentally new means of
    engaging with people. Just consider the novel way it helps people absorb
    and act on information and instructions. The web, which began as a way
    to share technical reports, ultimately transformed business, education,
    and social interaction. We expect that AR will do the same thing for
    communication—changing it in ways far beyond what we can envision today.
    Companies will need to think creatively about how they can use this
    nascent channel.

Fast food workers

亚洲必赢官网app( 15

亚洲必赢官网app( 16

快餐店服务人员

餐饮业在人工智能面前,也将面临大洗牌。

DEPLOYING AR

Automated ordering kiosks have already made their way into a few
McDonald’s restaurants around the world, and cooking positions could be
eliminated next.

Automated ordering kiosks have already made their way into a few
McDonald’s restaurants around the world, and cooking positions could
be eliminated next. 

世界各地的一些麦当劳餐厅已经启用了自动订购系统,接下来可能会研发自动烹饪机器。

The kiosks probably can’t handle customer service issues well, but
televideo systems could bring in an office employee to facilitate
complaints.

自助服务系统可能不能很好地处理客服问题,但是可视系统可以让办公室职员来处理投诉。

Automation will affect parts of casual dining restaurants as well, as
tableside tablet ordering systems have already arrived at restaurants
like Chili’s and others.

自动化也会影响到休闲餐厅,因为桌面平板电脑订购系统已经占领了Chili’s等餐厅。

AR applications are already being piloted and deployed in products and
across the value chain, and their number and breadth will only grow.
Every company needs an implementation road map that lays out how the
organization will start to capture the benefits of AR in its business
while building the capabilities needed to expand its use. When
determining the sequence and pace of adoption, companies must consider
both the technical challenges and the organizational skills involved,
which vary from context to context. Specifically, organizations need to
address five key questions:

世界各地的一些麦当劳餐厅已经启用了自动订购系统,接下来可能会研发自动烹饪机器。

09

  1. Which development capabilities will be required? Some AR experiences
    involve more complexity than others.Experiences that allow people to
    visualize products in different configurations or settings—like those
    created by IKEA, Wayfair, and AZEK—are a relatively easy place for
    companies to start. Consumers just need to be encouraged to download and
    launch AR apps, and only a mobile device is needed to use them.

The kiosks probably can’t handle customer service issues well, but
televideo systems could bring in an office employee to facilitate
complaints.

Field technician

Instruction applications, like the ones Boeing and GE employ in
manufacturing, are more difficult to build and use. They require the
capacity to develop and maintain dynamic 3-D digital content and often
benefit greatly from the use of headmounted displays or smart glasses,
which are still in the early stages of development. Apps that produce
interactive experiences, which create significant value for both
consumers and businesses, are the most challenging to develop. They also
involve less-mature technology, such as voice or gesture recognition,
and the need to integrate with software that controls SCPs. Most
companies will start with static visualizations of 3-D models, but they
should build the capability to move quickly into dynamic instructional
experiences that have greater strategic impact.

自助服务系统可能不能很好地处理客服问题,但是可视系统可以让办公室职员来处理投诉。

实地考察人员

  1. How should organizations create digital content? Every AR experience,
    from the least to the most sophisticated, requires content. In some
    cases it’s possible to repurpose existing digital content, such as
    product designs. Over time, however, more-complex, dynamic contextual
    experiences must be built from scratch, which requires specialized
    expertise. Simple applications, such as an ARenhanced furniture catalog,
    may need only basic product representations. More-sophisticated business
    instruction applications, however, such as those used for machine
    repair, will require accurate and highly detailed digital product
    representations. Companies can create these by adapting CAD models used
    in product development or by using digitization techniques such as 3-D
    scanning. The most sophisticated AR experiences also need to tap
    real-time data streams from enterprise business systems, SCPs, or
    external data sources and integrate them into the content. To prepare
    for broadening the AR portfolio, companies should take an inventory of
    existing 3-D digital assets in CAD and elsewhere and invest in digital
    modeling capabilities.

  2. How will AR applications recognize the physical environment? To
    accurately superimpose digital information on the physical world, AR
    technologies must recognize what they’re looking at. The simplest
    approach is to determine the location of the AR device using, say, GPS
    and show relevant information for that location without anchoring it to
    a specific object. This is known as an “unregistered” AR experience.
    Vehicle heads-up navigation displays typically work this way.
    Higher-value “registered” experiences anchor information to specific
    objects. They can do this through markers, such as bar codes, logos, or
    labels, which are placed on the objects and scanned by the user with an
    AR device. A more powerful approach, however, uses technology that
    recognizes objects by comparing their shape to a catalog of 3-D models.
    This allows a maintenance technician, for example, to instantly
    recognize and interact with any type of equipment he or she is
    responsible  for maintaining and to do so from any angle. While markers
    are a good starting point, shape-recognition technologies are advancing
    quickly, and organizations will need the capability to use them to tap
    into many of the highest-value AR applications.

  3. What AR hardware is required? AR experiences aimed at broad consumer
    audiences have typically been designed for smartphones, taking advantage
    of their simplicity and ubiquity. For moresophisticated experiences,
    companies use tablets, which offer larger screens, better graphics, and
    greater processing power. Since tablet penetration is lower, companies
    will often provide them to users. For certain high-value
    applications—notably those in aircraft and automobiles—manufacturers are
    building dedicated AR heads-up displays into their products—a costly
    approach.

Automation will affect parts of casual dining restaurants as well, as
tableside tablet ordering systems have already arrived at restaurants
like Chili’s and others.

许多工作要求员工去实地考察工作地点或机器,并检查操作流程。

Eventually, however, most AR applications for service, manufacturing,
and even product interfaces will require head-mounted displays that free
users’hands. This technology is currently both immature and expensive,
but we expect that affordable smart glasses will become widely available
in the next few years and will play a major part in releasing AR’s full
power. Microsoft, Google, and Apple now offer AR technologies optimized
for their own devices. However, most organizations should take a
cross-platform approach that allows AR experiences to be deployed across
multiple brands of phones and tablets and should make sure they’re ready
for smart glasses when they arrive.

自动化也会影响到休闲餐厅,因为桌面平板电脑订购系统已经占领了Chili’s等餐厅。

New advances in the Internet of Things could render this work
obsolete.

物联网的新发展可能会取代这份工作。

Low-cost sensors combined with high availability cellular/satellite
communications and cloud technology are being implemented to automate
and alarm these sites, and can be checked and maintained from a
desktop or mobile device.

低成本的传感器结合可用性高的蜂窝/卫星通信和云技术正在实现站点自动化、安装警报系统,并且可以通过桌面或移动设备进行检查和维护。

  1. Should you use a softwaredevelopment or a content-publishing model?
    Many early AR experiences have been delivered through stand-alone
    software applications that are downloaded, complete with digital
    content, to a phone or a tablet. This approach creates reliable,
    high-resolution experiences and allows organizations to make apps that
    don’t require internet connectivity. The problem with this model is that
    any change to the AR experience requires software developers to rewrite
    the app, which can create expensive bottlenecks.

Field technician

10

An emerging alternative uses commercial AR-publishing software to create
AR content and host it in the cloud. The AR experience can then be
downloaded on demand using a general-purpose app running on an AR
device. Like website content, the AR content can be updated or
supplemented without changing the software itself—an important benefit
when large amounts of information and frequent content changes are
involved.The content-publishing model will become common as more and
more machines and products include real-time AR interaction and control.
A content-publishing capability is essential to scaling AR up across the
organization.

实地考察人员

Assemby line workers 

THE BROADER IMPACT

New advances in the Internet of Things could render this work obsolete.

流水线工人

The digital revolution, with its SCPs and explosion of data, is
unleashing productivity and unlocking value across the economy.
Increasingly, the constraint is not a lack of data and knowledge but how
to assimilate and act on them—in other words, the interface with humans.
AR is emerging as a leading solution to this challenge.

物联网的新发展可能会取代这份工作。

亚洲必赢官网app( 17

At the same time, the rapid evolution of machine learning and automation
is raising serious concerns about human opportunity. Will there be
enough jobs for everyone, especially for people without advanced
education and knowledge? In a world of artificial intelligence and
robots, will humans become obsolete?

Low-cost sensors combined with high availability cellular/satellite
communications and cloud technology are being implemented to automate
and alarm these sites, and can be checked and maintained from a desktop
or mobile device.

几十年前就有言论称自动化将会取代制造业,但在不久的未来,可能就是现实了。

It is easy to conclude that new technology diminishes human opportunity.
Yet new inventions have been replacing human labor for centuries, and
they have led to growth in employment, not a decline. Technology has
dramatically increased our productivity and our standard of living It
has given rise to new kinds of offerings that meet new needs and require
new types of workers. Many of today’s jobs involve products and services
that did not even exist a hundred years ago. A lesson of history is that
today’s digital revolution will generate new waves of innovation and new
kinds of work that we cannot yet imagine.

低成本的传感器结合可用性高的蜂窝/卫星通信和云技术正在实现站点自动化、安装警报系统,并且可以通过桌面或移动设备进行检查和维护。

Tech, factories, and jobs have had a tricky relationship since the
Industrial Revolution. 

自工业革命以来,科技、工厂和工作之间的关系一直很微妙。

Robotic technology has been used in manufacturing for decades —
especially at major operations like Ford and Toyota — and the
technology continues to advance. 

几十年来,机器人技术一直被用于制造业,尤其是在福特和丰田等大型企业,而且这种技术还在继续发展。

The role of humans in this future is misunderstood. People have unique
strengths that machines and algorithms will not replicate anytime soon.
We have sophisticated motor skills—well beyond what robots are capable
of today—that allow us to do the subtle manipulation that’s needed in,
say, replacing a machine part or wiring a turbine. Even relatively less
skilled work, such as drawing blood, pruning a garden, or repairing a
flat tire, requires human dexterity and defies automation. Human
cognition adapts instantaneously to novel situations; people easily
adjust the way they interpret information, solve problems, exercise
judgment, and take action to suit their circumstances. Humans have
flexibility, imagination, intuition, and creative ability that for the
foreseeable future are beyond the reach of any machine.

Assemby line workers

在未来,随着人工智能和电子化操作的进一步推广,流水线工人的生存空间还将被进一步挤压。

While the advances in artificial intelligence and robotics are
impressive, we believe that combining the capabilities of machines with
humans’ distinctive strengths will lead to far greater productivity and
more value creation than either could generate alone. What’s needed to
realize this opportunity is a powerful human interface that bridges the
gap between the digital and physical worlds. We see AR as a historic
innovation that provides this. It helps humans enhance their own
capabilities by taking full advantage of new digital knowledge and
machine capabilities. It will profoundly change training and skill
development, allowing people to perform sophisticated work without
protracted and expensive conventional instruction—a model that is
inaccessible to so many today. AR, then, enables people to better tap
into the digital revolution and all it has to offer.

流水线工人

好了,你还知道有哪些工作也面临类似的威胁呢?

Tech, factories, and jobs have had a tricky relationship since the
Industrial Revolution.


自工业革命以来,科技、工厂和工作之间的关系一直很微妙。

沪江网校,你的随身英语教练

Robotic technology has been used in manufacturing for decades —
especially at major operations like Ford and Toyota — and the
technology continues to advance.

长按这里,了解更多

几十年来,机器人技术一直被用于制造业,尤其是在福特和丰田等大型企业,而且这种技术还在继续发展。


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